Welcome to ATM 111 - Weather Analysis and Prediction

ATM 111
Weather Analysis and Prediction

Page Last modified: 5 January 2011

Topical Links:

Course Administration

Items related to the forecast notebook: selected images selected parts of text (.doc file)

Access Dr. Grotjahn's weather links

Access Dr. Grotjahn's experimental model comparison page

Map Presentations -- Outline of products to use.

Review sheets for subject groups in lecture:

Weather Forecasting Subjectmatter:
1. Weather Map Review 2011 powerpoint file to see animations.
2. Forecast Discussion 2011 powerpoint file to see animations.
3. Making specific forecasts
4. Composite forecast maps for the lower Sacrmento Valley Extraordinary Weather Events (EWEs)
5. Chinook charts from 0GMT on 3 February 1999 (100+ mph winds in Boulder area)
  Upper air maps (Unisys) - - - - Surface map (Unisys)
6. Analysis/forecast cycle:
  - Gathering observations
  - Objective analysis
  - Computer models including the Eta and MRF/AVN.
    1. Recent discussion of AVN/MRF model properties
    2. Recent discussion of Eta model changes
      Also of interest: NCEP mesoscale modelling branch
  - NMM dynamical core lecture 2009 pdf.
  - NMM physical parameterizations lecture 2009 pdf.
  - Using statistics in guidance including MOS, Verification, and Consensus.
    - Example of MRF MOS for California locations
  Midterm from 2007 (.pdf file)coming soon
  
  ************ some things are not yet updated below **********
Weather Analysis Subjectmatter (emphasis on midlatitude frontal cyclones):
- Vorticity Equation includes links to:
  - advection of "solenoids" and the
  - "Bowstring model" of vertical motion
  - Midterm Exam
  - A review table for vorticity equation terms.
- QG forcing of upward motion including some background in the QG system.
- Simplified omega equation including effects of differing cyclone size.
- Height tendency equation section
Weather Analysis Subjectmatter (emphasis on midlatitude frontal cyclones): (continued)
- Surface pressure tendency equation section 4.3
- Chapter 6 parts covered.
- Chapter 7 parts covered.
- Chapter 8 parts covered. skipped 2007
- A review table for equations of vorticity motion & development.
- Orographic influences
- Chap. 10.1: cyclone climatology skipped 2007
- Chap. 10.2: cyclone evolution under const.
- Chap. 10.3: Cyclone movement
- Chap. 10.4: Mature Cyclones
- Final Exam (2008)
  Electronic copy of Final Exam from 2007
- Chap. 10.7: Polar Lows skipped 2007
- Chap. 12.1: Isentropic Analysis Only general ideas in 2007
- Chap. 12.3: Relative isentropic flow in warm conveyor belt
  Only general ideas in 2007
- Chap. 12.3: Relative isentropic flow in cold conveyor belt
- Chap. 14.1: Jet streaks
  Below was skipped 2007
- Chap. 13.2: Frontogenesis equation
- Chap. 14.3: "How a front is made" (emphasis upon the ageostrophic circulation that is set up.) The final section (below) was not discussed in the 2002 offering of the course.
- Chap. 14.4: Q-vector diagnosis of frontogenesis (forcing of the front and its ageostrophic circulation can be deduced from isentropes and geostrophic winds using the Q vector.).

Weekly labwork information:

Please Note: always do your own work! These lab projects are not to be collaborative exercises.

Assignment #1 (2011)
Electronic copy of no-color.jpg showing black contours of 500 hPa geopotential height.
- Map 2 showing black contours of 500 hPa geopotential height and colored shading of relative vorticity (red is positive; blue is negative).
- Map 3 showing black contours of SLP and colored shading of 500 hPa geopotential.
electronic copy of reduced color.jpg showing thickness (black contours) and SLP (colored contours).
- TBA
Assignment #2
- electronic copy of 4-panel thkns & SLP Does not have precip marked
  - electronic copy of surface map 12 hrs before map a.
  - electronic copy of 4-panel thkns & SLP Has the areas of precipitation asked about marked. (Note the areas of precipitation are much more extensive than these maps have marked.)
  - Directory with electronic copies of all upper air maps NOTE: the relevant maps start with W08 in the file name.
Hwk Assignment #6 (2011)
Electronic copy of the assignment .
Labwk Assignment #4 (2011)
Electronic copy of the assignment .
Ignore old assignments listed below
Assignment #3
- directory of forecast maps for problem 1.
  It also has link to COMET modules on NWP exam(s).
- directory of COMET modules in the NWP group.
Assignment #7
- directory of weather maps Z, Zp, T, Tp for 080108 12z storm.
Ignore old assignments listed below
Assignment #2
- electronic copy of thkns & SLP Does not have precip marked
- electronic copy of thkns, SLP & Precip Does have precip marked
- Directory with electronic copies of all maps
Assignment #2 electronic copy of thkns-SLP-Precip thkns & SLP only
Supplementary map groups (other variables shown) in chronological order:
supplement 1 supplement 2 supplement 3 supplement 4 Related to the map you group are analyzing.
supplementary animation of the 4 supplementary map groups.
Assignment #3
- directory of forecast maps for problem 1.
  It also has link to COMET modules on NWP exam(s).
- directory of COMET modules in the NWP group.
Assignment #6 EXCEL file of input data
Lab #7 directory of images
***** prior year assignments below ****
Assignment #4 EXCEL file of input data
Assignment #8 directory for images
All Lecture Homework and Labwork
Electronic copy of Electronic copy of all assignments. Next lecture or lab assignment should be handed out the day that the previous lecture or lab assignment, respectively, is due. (pdf file)
Electronic .doc file of the same assignments.

Term Project information:

The term project for this year is to generate "gif" animations from weather maps. Short, test examples are:
large format original format
and
small format 80% of the original format

Here is A simplified guide to creating the .gif animation from the input list of .gif files using Animation Shop.

Here are: the 1999, 2000, & 2002 student animations